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Sinotrans Limited (601598.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.88 - $101.75$40.68
Multi-Stage$14.50 - $15.87$15.17
Blended Fair Value$27.93
Current Price$6.39
Upside337.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.23%20.99%0.290.240.290.120.120.230.070.070.070.06
YoY Growth--18.68%-14.73%134.19%-0.04%-48.07%253.67%-8.65%9.52%10.53%39.66%
Dividend Yield--5.54%3.90%6.86%3.05%2.83%6.71%1.06%1.49%1.36%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,771.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,142.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,629.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)754.34471.46282.88
Cash Retained (M)1,629.091,629.091,629.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-754.34-471.46-282.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)874.751,157.631,346.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,292.617,292.617,292.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.34%5.34%6.34%
Fair Value$19.88$40.68$101.75
Upside / Downside211.08%536.60%1,492.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,771.723,973.314,185.674,409.384,645.054,893.315,040.11
Payout Ratio56.81%63.45%70.08%76.72%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,142.632,520.912,933.513,383.013,872.184,403.984,662.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate4.34%5.34%6.34%
Year 1 PV (M)2,344.222,366.682,389.15
Year 2 PV (M)2,536.692,585.552,634.87
Year 3 PV (M)2,720.352,799.312,879.79
Year 4 PV (M)2,895.453,008.063,123.91
Year 5 PV (M)3,062.293,211.873,367.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,183.4696,686.20101,363.19
Equity Value (M)105,742.46110,657.66115,758.14
Shares Outstanding (M)7,292.617,292.617,292.61
Fair Value$14.50$15.17$15.87
Upside / Downside126.92%137.46%148.41%

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