Definitive Analysis
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Zhejiang Shaoxing RuiFeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (601528.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.59 - $204.22$180.06
Multi-Stage$25.65 - $28.08$26.84
Blended Fair Value$103.45
Current Price$5.31
Upside1,848.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.90%12.46%0.270.230.190.100.190.200.190.160.130.11
YoY Growth--15.60%22.64%84.04%-44.59%-7.89%8.69%15.04%24.07%18.32%32.41%
Dividend Yield--5.10%4.66%3.40%1.42%2.08%2.26%2.08%1.81%1.46%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,006.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)439.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,566.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.21250.75150.45
Cash Retained (M)1,566.131,566.131,566.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.21-250.75-150.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,164.921,315.381,415.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.481,953.481,953.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.670.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.820.900.95
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.59$180.06$204.22
Upside / Downside965.80%3,291.05%3,746.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,006.032,136.422,275.292,423.182,580.692,748.432,830.89
Payout Ratio21.93%35.54%49.16%62.77%76.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)439.90759.351,118.471,521.071,971.282,473.592,618.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)702.80709.46716.13
Year 2 PV (M)958.09976.34994.76
Year 3 PV (M)1,205.931,240.551,275.83
Year 4 PV (M)1,446.491,502.111,559.33
Year 5 PV (M)1,679.911,761.051,845.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,112.4446,243.0848,455.28
Equity Value (M)50,105.6652,432.6054,846.61
Shares Outstanding (M)1,953.481,953.481,953.48
Fair Value$25.65$26.84$28.08
Upside / Downside383.04%405.47%428.74%

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