Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xi'an Shaangu Power Co., Ltd. (601369.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$46.51 - $113.86$106.71
Multi-Stage$16.59 - $18.16$17.36
Blended Fair Value$62.03
Current Price$8.41
Upside637.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.86%6.50%0.620.390.340.310.250.230.150.150.200.24
YoY Growth--58.10%17.41%7.36%25.06%7.80%50.35%1.53%-23.77%-17.76%-26.96%
Dividend Yield--7.08%4.34%3.19%3.58%2.85%4.16%2.23%1.94%2.63%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)992.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)372.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)620.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)198.58124.1174.47
Cash Retained (M)620.06620.06620.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-198.58-124.11-74.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)421.48495.95545.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.201,734.201,734.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.290.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.500.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$46.51$106.71$113.86
Upside / Downside452.98%1,168.81%1,253.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)992.901,057.441,126.171,199.371,277.331,360.361,401.17
Payout Ratio37.55%48.04%58.53%69.02%79.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)372.84507.99659.15827.811,015.611,224.321,296.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)472.34476.82481.29
Year 2 PV (M)569.86580.72591.68
Year 3 PV (M)665.44684.55704.01
Year 4 PV (M)759.10788.30818.32
Year 5 PV (M)850.87891.97934.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,451.4226,680.7427,957.10
Equity Value (M)28,769.0430,103.0831,487.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,734.201,734.201,734.20
Fair Value$16.59$17.36$18.16
Upside / Downside97.26%106.40%115.89%

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