Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sailun Group Co., Ltd. (601058.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92.19 - $225.39$211.23
Multi-Stage$32.97 - $36.08$34.49
Blended Fair Value$122.86
Current Price$14.38
Upside754.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.87%15.16%0.440.290.260.210.160.120.110.120.100.12
YoY Growth--50.42%12.82%20.70%29.99%33.50%8.41%-6.54%22.18%-15.57%10.43%
Dividend Yield--3.02%1.90%2.38%2.16%1.81%3.26%3.62%4.02%2.41%3.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,690.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,578.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,112.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)738.15461.35276.81
Cash Retained (M)2,112.452,112.452,112.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-738.15-461.35-276.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,374.301,651.111,835.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.543,256.543,256.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.480.480.48
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.910.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$92.19$211.23$225.39
Upside / Downside541.08%1,368.89%1,467.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,690.773,930.674,186.174,458.274,748.055,056.685,208.38
Payout Ratio42.76%52.21%61.66%71.11%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,578.322,052.252,581.123,170.083,824.694,551.014,817.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,908.231,926.311,944.40
Year 2 PV (M)2,231.562,274.062,316.97
Year 3 PV (M)2,548.412,621.572,696.11
Year 4 PV (M)2,858.882,968.823,081.91
Year 5 PV (M)3,163.063,315.843,474.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,652.9399,224.70103,971.45
Equity Value (M)107,363.06112,331.30117,485.29
Shares Outstanding (M)3,256.543,256.543,256.54
Fair Value$32.97$34.49$36.08
Upside / Downside129.27%139.88%150.88%

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