Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fortune Ng Fung Food (Hebei) Co.,Ltd (600965.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.38 - $0.50$0.44
Multi-Stage$0.73 - $0.80$0.76
Blended Fair Value$0.60
Current Price$4.81
Upside-87.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-20.61%0.29%0.050.050.130.110.160.160.080.090.080.05
YoY Growth---6.59%-56.73%15.17%-33.16%1.38%95.58%-11.78%10.40%56.33%9.63%
Dividend Yield--0.81%1.03%1.74%1.56%2.93%1.87%0.74%0.90%0.64%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.319.575.74
Cash Retained (M)43.5243.5243.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.31-9.57-5.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.2133.9537.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)808.91808.91808.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Fair Value$0.38$0.44$0.50
Upside / Downside-92.20%-90.88%-89.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.5570.6465.1860.1455.5051.2152.75
Payout Ratio43.15%52.52%61.89%71.26%80.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.0337.1040.3442.8644.7546.0948.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate-8.72%-7.72%-6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)33.4533.8234.19
Year 2 PV (M)32.8033.5234.25
Year 3 PV (M)31.4232.4633.53
Year 4 PV (M)29.5830.9032.26
Year 5 PV (M)27.4729.0130.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)433.97458.27483.65
Equity Value (M)588.70617.98648.49
Shares Outstanding (M)808.91808.91808.91
Fair Value$0.73$0.76$0.80
Upside / Downside-84.87%-84.12%-83.33%

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