Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SDIC Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (600886.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.58 - $109.93$44.34
Multi-Stage$23.24 - $25.45$24.32
Blended Fair Value$34.33
Current Price$13.06
Upside162.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.84%-7.46%0.480.900.850.990.971.000.940.941.001.14
YoY Growth---47.40%6.33%-13.62%1.74%-3.41%6.25%0.29%-5.65%-12.80%10.71%
Dividend Yield--3.30%6.11%7.87%10.55%9.75%12.63%11.23%13.24%13.25%16.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,582.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,379.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,202.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,316.45822.78493.67
Cash Retained (M)3,202.793,202.793,202.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,316.45-822.78-493.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,886.332,380.002,709.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,747.657,747.657,747.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.310.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.310.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.79
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Fair Value$25.58$44.34$109.93
Upside / Downside95.90%239.53%741.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,582.276,894.117,220.727,562.817,921.108,296.378,545.26
Payout Ratio51.34%59.07%66.81%74.54%82.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,379.484,072.614,823.835,637.086,516.577,466.747,904.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.74%4.74%5.74%
Year 1 PV (M)3,787.773,824.283,860.79
Year 2 PV (M)4,172.664,253.494,335.10
Year 3 PV (M)4,535.094,667.514,802.48
Year 4 PV (M)4,875.975,066.725,263.01
Year 5 PV (M)5,196.175,451.505,716.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)157,456.84165,193.77173,231.88
Equity Value (M)180,024.51188,457.27197,210.03
Shares Outstanding (M)7,747.657,747.657,747.65
Fair Value$23.24$24.32$25.45
Upside / Downside77.92%86.25%94.90%

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