Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

AVIC Aviation High-Technology Co., Ltd. (600862.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$127.06 - $149.70$140.29
Multi-Stage$90.89 - $99.75$95.24
Blended Fair Value$117.77
Current Price$23.69
Upside397.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.92%24.54%0.220.170.130.100.170.150.030.030.020.02
YoY Growth--35.16%26.59%26.91%-40.45%13.23%413.38%-9.09%33.02%6.20%-7.03%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.85%0.59%0.46%0.67%1.27%0.29%0.37%0.21%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,046.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)349.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)697.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.40130.8778.52
Cash Retained (M)697.74697.74697.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.40-130.87-78.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)488.35566.87619.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,390.891,390.891,390.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate1.27%1.27%1.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$127.06$140.29$149.70
Upside / Downside436.36%492.21%531.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,046.991,115.051,187.531,264.721,346.921,434.471,477.51
Payout Ratio33.36%44.69%56.01%67.34%78.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)349.25498.27665.19851.701,059.641,291.021,366.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.27%1.27%1.27%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)487.38492.00496.62
Year 2 PV (M)636.43648.56660.79
Year 3 PV (M)797.08819.96843.27
Year 4 PV (M)970.021,007.321,045.69
Year 5 PV (M)1,156.011,211.841,269.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)122,376.01128,286.82134,423.84
Equity Value (M)126,422.92132,466.49138,740.03
Shares Outstanding (M)1,390.891,390.891,390.89
Fair Value$90.89$95.24$99.75
Upside / Downside283.68%302.02%321.06%

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