Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Topchoice Medical Corporation (600763.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.35 - $113.49$53.48
Multi-Stage$21.02 - $22.96$21.97
Blended Fair Value$37.72
Current Price$44.04
Upside-14.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.04%0.00%0.330.030.010.030.050.050.080.120.040.05
YoY Growth--1,233.44%67.90%-47.98%-38.96%-12.78%-32.42%-34.84%249.20%-25.71%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.06%0.02%0.03%0.03%0.07%0.16%0.42%0.18%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)516.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)206.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)310.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.3364.5838.75
Cash Retained (M)310.48310.48310.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.33-64.58-38.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)207.15245.90271.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)447.62447.62447.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.35$53.48$113.49
Upside / Downside-26.54%21.43%157.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)516.66550.24586.00624.09664.66707.86729.10
Payout Ratio39.91%49.92%59.94%69.96%79.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)206.17274.70351.27436.63531.60637.08674.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.51%8.51%8.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)250.78253.16255.53
Year 2 PV (M)292.75298.33303.96
Year 3 PV (M)332.20341.73351.45
Year 4 PV (M)369.23383.43398.04
Year 5 PV (M)403.95423.46443.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,759.138,133.908,523.01
Equity Value (M)9,408.049,834.0110,275.71
Shares Outstanding (M)447.62447.62447.62
Fair Value$21.02$21.97$22.96
Upside / Downside-52.27%-50.11%-47.87%

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