Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Heli Co.,Ltd. (600761.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.68 - $298.74$279.96
Multi-Stage$39.97 - $43.71$41.81
Blended Fair Value$160.88
Current Price$21.93
Upside633.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.86%15.79%0.750.420.340.330.310.300.480.240.150.21
YoY Growth--79.63%21.14%4.27%5.07%3.75%-37.53%100.09%65.36%-30.24%21.49%
Dividend Yield--3.90%1.99%1.92%3.19%2.48%3.29%4.04%2.41%1.21%2.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,339.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)718.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)620.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)267.87167.42100.45
Cash Retained (M)620.72620.72620.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-267.87-167.42-100.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)352.84453.29520.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)891.64891.64891.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.510.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.810.810.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.510.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.201.311.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$91.68$279.96$298.74
Upside / Downside318.04%1,176.61%1,262.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,339.371,426.431,519.151,617.891,723.061,835.051,890.11
Payout Ratio53.66%60.92%68.19%75.46%82.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)718.66869.051,035.961,220.901,425.511,651.551,748.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)805.45813.09820.72
Year 2 PV (M)889.88906.83923.94
Year 3 PV (M)972.00999.901,028.33
Year 4 PV (M)1,051.831,092.281,133.89
Year 5 PV (M)1,129.441,184.001,240.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,792.3832,279.6633,823.87
Equity Value (M)35,640.9937,275.7638,971.39
Shares Outstanding (M)891.64891.64891.64
Fair Value$39.97$41.81$43.71
Upside / Downside82.27%90.63%99.30%

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