Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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HUAYU Automotive Systems Company Limited (600741.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.45 - $37.59$29.85
Multi-Stage$29.86 - $32.78$31.29
Blended Fair Value$30.57
Current Price$20.50
Upside49.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.74%8.81%0.931.040.980.860.991.191.151.120.890.54
YoY Growth---10.12%5.55%14.28%-12.66%-17.16%3.78%2.72%24.74%66.48%33.99%
Dividend Yield--5.16%5.88%5.87%4.31%3.57%5.52%5.44%4.60%4.91%3.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,904.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)342.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,562.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,380.99863.12517.87
Cash Retained (M)6,562.066,562.066,562.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,380.99-863.12-517.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,181.075,698.946,044.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,152.723,152.723,152.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.641.811.92
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.641.811.92
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.751.922.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Fair Value$23.45$29.85$37.59
Upside / Downside14.39%45.60%83.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,904.977,059.097,216.667,377.747,542.417,710.767,942.09
Payout Ratio4.97%21.97%38.98%55.99%72.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)342.911,551.092,813.034,130.535,505.456,939.697,346.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.80%8.80%8.80%
Growth Rate1.23%2.23%3.23%
Year 1 PV (M)1,411.741,425.691,439.63
Year 2 PV (M)2,330.292,376.562,423.28
Year 3 PV (M)3,114.303,207.503,302.55
Year 4 PV (M)3,778.023,929.534,085.55
Year 5 PV (M)4,334.414,552.764,779.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)79,165.4083,153.5287,300.76
Equity Value (M)94,134.1698,645.55103,331.60
Shares Outstanding (M)3,152.723,152.723,152.72
Fair Value$29.86$31.29$32.78
Upside / Downside45.65%52.63%59.88%

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