Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited (600598.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.28 - $17.45$12.60
Multi-Stage$16.08 - $17.64$16.84
Blended Fair Value$14.72
Current Price$14.37
Upside2.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.90%38.00%0.440.420.400.400.380.400.270.340.290.39
YoY Growth--4.57%5.00%-0.04%5.30%-4.96%48.10%-20.60%15.25%-24.88%2,140.25%
Dividend Yield--3.17%3.39%2.98%2.64%2.43%2.32%2.68%3.07%2.62%3.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,096.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)978.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.31137.0782.24
Cash Retained (M)118.34118.34118.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.31-137.07-82.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-100.98-18.7336.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,777.681,777.681,777.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.94%1.94%2.94%
Fair Value$9.28$12.60$17.45
Upside / Downside-35.41%-12.31%21.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,096.571,117.881,139.591,161.731,184.291,207.301,243.52
Payout Ratio89.21%89.37%89.52%89.68%89.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)978.24999.011,020.221,041.881,063.991,086.571,150.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate0.94%1.94%2.94%
Year 1 PV (M)930.50939.72948.94
Year 2 PV (M)885.10902.72920.52
Year 3 PV (M)841.90867.17892.94
Year 4 PV (M)800.81833.02866.19
Year 5 PV (M)761.73800.22840.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,369.0425,600.2726,880.76
Equity Value (M)28,589.0829,943.1131,349.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,777.681,777.681,777.68
Fair Value$16.08$16.84$17.64
Upside / Downside11.92%17.22%22.72%

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