Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass Co., Ltd (600529.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$119.47 - $230.01$215.55
Multi-Stage$36.22 - $39.63$37.90
Blended Fair Value$126.72
Current Price$21.46
Upside490.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.51%26.52%0.700.300.270.270.270.190.150.090.160.07
YoY Growth--133.33%11.54%0.00%0.00%40.00%26.58%76.68%-45.41%128.06%3.59%
Dividend Yield--3.01%0.99%1.03%1.02%0.68%0.57%0.81%0.85%1.64%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)765.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)411.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)353.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.0095.6357.38
Cash Retained (M)353.57353.57353.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.00-95.63-57.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)200.57257.95296.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)661.47661.47661.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.390.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.390.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$119.47$215.55$230.01
Upside / Downside456.70%904.43%971.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)765.01814.74867.70924.10984.161,048.141,079.58
Payout Ratio53.78%61.03%68.27%75.51%82.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)411.44497.20592.37697.81814.46943.32998.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)463.27467.66472.05
Year 2 PV (M)514.27524.07533.96
Year 3 PV (M)564.47580.67597.18
Year 4 PV (M)613.86637.47661.75
Year 5 PV (M)662.46694.46727.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,141.8322,162.9923,223.23
Equity Value (M)23,960.1625,067.3126,215.85
Shares Outstanding (M)661.47661.47661.47
Fair Value$36.22$37.90$39.63
Upside / Downside68.79%76.59%84.68%

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