Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co., Ltd. (600508.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.05 - $10.33$7.91
Multi-Stage$6.77 - $7.42$7.09
Blended Fair Value$7.50
Current Price$12.03
Upside-37.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.10%15.20%0.680.780.280.410.380.400.320.210.180.17
YoY Growth---13.42%174.76%-30.63%6.92%-4.06%24.70%50.75%18.10%6.70%2.61%
Dividend Yield--5.68%5.54%2.02%4.02%3.82%4.97%2.94%1.96%1.57%1.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)305.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.0143.1325.88
Cash Retained (M)305.22305.22305.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.01-43.13-25.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)236.21262.09279.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)722.72722.72722.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.380.420.44
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate2.48%3.48%4.48%
Fair Value$6.05$7.91$10.33
Upside / Downside-49.68%-34.26%-14.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.04357.04369.45382.29395.58409.33421.61
Payout Ratio11.54%27.23%42.93%58.62%74.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.8297.23158.59224.09293.95368.40389.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate2.48%3.48%4.48%
Year 1 PV (M)88.3989.2590.12
Year 2 PV (M)131.05133.62136.22
Year 3 PV (M)168.34173.31178.39
Year 4 PV (M)200.73208.69216.87
Year 5 PV (M)228.69240.07251.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,074.444,277.164,487.86
Equity Value (M)4,891.655,122.105,361.35
Shares Outstanding (M)722.72722.72722.72
Fair Value$6.77$7.09$7.42
Upside / Downside-43.74%-41.09%-38.33%

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