Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Hi-speed Company Limited (600350.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.76 - $135.36$126.86
Multi-Stage$22.19 - $24.27$23.21
Blended Fair Value$75.03
Current Price$8.61
Upside771.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.36%8.62%1.001.021.010.960.850.220.460.390.340.38
YoY Growth---1.85%1.47%4.73%13.55%283.65%-51.65%16.16%15.86%-9.65%-14.38%
Dividend Yield--9.40%12.46%16.44%17.79%13.43%5.31%8.84%6.80%4.79%6.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,299.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,138.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,161.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)659.92412.45247.47
Cash Retained (M)1,161.321,161.321,161.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-659.92-412.45-247.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)501.41748.87913.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,847.704,847.704,847.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.440.440.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.600.63
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.76$126.86$135.36
Upside / Downside838.01%1,373.36%1,472.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,299.593,514.063,742.483,985.744,244.814,520.724,656.34
Payout Ratio64.80%69.84%74.88%79.92%84.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,138.272,454.332,802.463,185.463,606.424,068.654,307.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,289.102,310.802,332.50
Year 2 PV (M)2,437.832,484.262,531.13
Year 3 PV (M)2,584.462,658.652,734.24
Year 4 PV (M)2,729.012,833.962,941.91
Year 5 PV (M)2,871.513,010.213,154.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,659.8299,231.93103,979.02
Equity Value (M)107,571.73112,529.81117,673.01
Shares Outstanding (M)4,847.704,847.704,847.70
Fair Value$22.19$23.21$24.27
Upside / Downside157.73%169.61%181.93%

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