Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Tiantan Biological Products Co., Ltd. (600161.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.43 - $26.46$17.67
Multi-Stage$9.03 - $9.87$9.44
Blended Fair Value$13.56
Current Price$19.08
Upside-28.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.57%5.12%0.120.050.080.080.050.030.070.100.050.06
YoY Growth--162.88%-40.19%-4.05%76.39%53.88%-56.93%-27.26%91.68%-20.01%-16.21%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.21%0.38%0.48%0.21%0.14%0.57%0.90%0.45%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,316.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,119.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)263.23164.5298.71
Cash Retained (M)1,119.031,119.031,119.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-263.23-164.52-98.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)855.80954.511,020.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,993.851,993.851,993.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.43$17.67$26.46
Upside / Downside-34.83%-7.37%38.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,316.131,401.681,492.791,589.821,693.161,803.211,857.31
Payout Ratio14.98%29.98%44.99%59.99%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.10420.24671.54953.741,269.791,622.891,718.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)378.51382.10385.69
Year 2 PV (M)544.81555.19565.66
Year 3 PV (M)696.93716.94737.33
Year 4 PV (M)835.76867.90900.96
Year 5 PV (M)962.111,008.581,056.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,590.7215,295.4616,027.16
Equity Value (M)18,008.8518,826.1719,673.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,993.851,993.851,993.85
Fair Value$9.03$9.44$9.87
Upside / Downside-52.66%-50.51%-48.29%

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