Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. (600096.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.76 - $82.54$60.31
Multi-Stage$79.81 - $87.67$83.66
Blended Fair Value$71.99
Current Price$26.80
Upside168.61%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.12%35.96%1.331.420.670.800.991.341.471.451.221.34
YoY Growth---6.01%112.21%-16.77%-18.87%-26.22%-9.04%1.93%18.29%-8.90%2,073.56%
Dividend Yield--5.83%7.34%3.15%3.17%13.48%23.94%21.00%20.37%13.85%13.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,637.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,879.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,758.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,127.56704.72422.83
Cash Retained (M)2,758.422,758.422,758.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,127.56-704.72-422.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,630.862,053.702,335.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,828.661,828.661,828.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.571.571.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.121.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.472.702.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Fair Value$44.76$60.31$82.54
Upside / Downside67.01%125.05%207.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,637.805,731.205,826.145,922.676,020.796,120.536,304.15
Payout Ratio51.07%58.86%66.64%74.43%82.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,879.383,373.283,882.754,408.194,949.965,508.485,831.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)3,145.003,176.243,207.48
Year 2 PV (M)3,375.013,442.413,510.47
Year 3 PV (M)3,572.433,679.963,789.64
Year 4 PV (M)3,740.013,890.874,046.24
Year 5 PV (M)3,880.354,076.974,281.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)128,228.07134,725.47141,483.62
Equity Value (M)145,940.88152,991.92160,318.93
Shares Outstanding (M)1,828.661,828.661,828.66
Fair Value$79.81$83.66$87.67
Upside / Downside197.79%212.18%227.13%

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