Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd (600031.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$30.84 - $150.83$54.89
Multi-Stage$24.30 - $26.60$25.43
Blended Fair Value$40.16
Current Price$23.24
Upside72.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.25%12.36%0.350.160.450.660.420.260.150.030.010.04
YoY Growth--111.06%-63.45%-31.67%57.61%62.97%73.92%442.53%201.48%-79.18%-60.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.10%2.63%3.75%1.22%1.48%1.14%0.34%0.12%0.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,243.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,508.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,734.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,648.621,030.39618.23
Cash Retained (M)4,734.524,734.524,734.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,648.62-1,030.39-618.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,085.903,704.134,116.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)8,459.218,459.218,459.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate4.25%5.25%6.25%
Fair Value$30.84$54.89$150.83
Upside / Downside32.71%136.18%549.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,243.088,675.649,130.909,610.0510,114.3510,645.1010,964.46
Payout Ratio42.56%52.05%61.54%71.03%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,508.564,515.765,619.006,825.598,143.349,580.5910,142.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate4.25%5.25%6.25%
Year 1 PV (M)4,184.834,224.974,265.12
Year 2 PV (M)4,825.624,918.655,012.56
Year 3 PV (M)5,432.275,590.115,750.97
Year 4 PV (M)6,006.086,239.886,480.43
Year 5 PV (M)6,548.306,868.467,201.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)178,546.96187,276.44196,344.07
Equity Value (M)205,544.07215,118.50225,054.15
Shares Outstanding (M)8,459.218,459.218,459.21
Fair Value$24.30$25.43$26.60
Upside / Downside4.55%9.42%14.48%

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