Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Zheneng Electric Power Co., Ltd. (600023.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.85 - $20.72$13.95
Multi-Stage$10.05 - $11.01$10.52
Blended Fair Value$12.23
Current Price$4.95
Upside147.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.17%1.87%0.360.110.100.310.290.290.280.330.380.39
YoY Growth--211.70%8.60%-66.40%6.46%1.31%3.99%-16.67%-12.20%-1.22%30.52%
Dividend Yield--6.23%1.73%2.93%9.21%7.39%8.54%5.60%6.03%6.68%6.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,282.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)940.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,342.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,456.56910.35546.21
Cash Retained (M)6,342.506,342.506,342.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,456.56-910.35-546.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,885.945,432.155,796.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)13,411.8613,411.8613,411.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.410.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.480.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Fair Value$9.85$13.95$20.72
Upside / Downside99.07%181.73%318.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,282.817,593.047,916.488,253.718,605.298,971.869,241.01
Payout Ratio12.91%28.33%43.75%59.16%74.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)940.312,151.043,463.214,883.276,418.028,074.678,547.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.81%7.81%7.81%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)1,976.041,995.172,014.31
Year 2 PV (M)2,922.632,979.513,036.94
Year 3 PV (M)3,785.763,896.824,010.02
Year 4 PV (M)4,570.794,750.444,935.33
Year 5 PV (M)5,282.785,543.595,814.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)116,219.74121,957.34127,919.34
Equity Value (M)134,757.74141,122.86147,730.54
Shares Outstanding (M)13,411.8613,411.8613,411.86
Fair Value$10.05$10.52$11.01
Upside / Downside102.98%112.57%122.52%

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