Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. (600018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.70 - $10.77$8.54
Multi-Stage$8.39 - $9.20$8.79
Blended Fair Value$8.66
Current Price$5.45
Upside58.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.72%5.61%0.260.190.240.170.190.200.230.200.190.23
YoY Growth--34.92%-21.38%40.09%-9.33%-6.51%-12.65%18.30%4.17%-16.94%53.23%
Dividend Yield--4.44%3.53%4.38%3.17%3.99%4.56%3.17%2.80%3.22%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,416.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,940.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,475.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,883.261,802.041,081.22
Cash Retained (M)12,475.3912,475.3912,475.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,883.26-1,802.04-1,081.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,592.1310,673.3511,394.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Fair Value$6.70$8.54$10.77
Upside / Downside22.96%56.68%97.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,416.3014,767.9115,128.0915,497.0615,875.0216,262.2116,750.07
Payout Ratio13.46%28.77%44.08%59.39%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,940.914,248.826,668.169,202.9811,857.4814,635.9915,493.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.95%8.95%8.95%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)3,861.823,899.893,937.96
Year 2 PV (M)5,508.765,617.915,728.12
Year 3 PV (M)6,910.357,116.747,327.20
Year 4 PV (M)8,092.608,416.468,749.95
Year 5 PV (M)9,079.089,535.5010,010.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)161,611.69169,736.26178,184.35
Equity Value (M)195,064.30204,322.77213,937.69
Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
Fair Value$8.39$8.79$9.20
Upside / Downside53.93%61.23%68.82%

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