Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co., Ltd. (600010.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.49 - $1.20$0.73
Multi-Stage$0.37 - $0.40$0.39
Blended Fair Value$0.56
Current Price$2.38
Upside-76.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.35%23.21%0.030.000.000.000.040.010.010.040.040.03
YoY Growth--38,942.06%19.84%5.09%-99.83%460.29%35.11%-86.44%2.96%5.67%757.83%
Dividend Yield--1.79%0.01%0.00%0.00%2.44%0.59%0.27%1.69%1.67%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,013.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)909.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)104.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.73126.7176.02
Cash Retained (M)104.29104.29104.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.73-126.71-76.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)-98.43-22.4128.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45,285.8545,285.8545,285.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$0.49$0.73$1.20
Upside / Downside-79.43%-69.34%-49.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,013.651,079.531,149.701,224.431,304.021,388.781,430.45
Payout Ratio89.71%89.77%89.83%89.88%89.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)909.35969.081,032.741,100.571,172.871,249.911,323.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.36%9.36%9.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)877.83886.15894.47
Year 2 PV (M)847.40863.54879.83
Year 3 PV (M)818.03841.51865.44
Year 4 PV (M)789.67820.04851.27
Year 5 PV (M)762.30799.11837.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,690.7213,303.6813,940.11
Equity Value (M)16,785.9417,514.0418,268.47
Shares Outstanding (M)45,285.8545,285.8545,285.85
Fair Value$0.37$0.39$0.40
Upside / Downside-84.43%-83.75%-83.05%

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