Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tsuruya Co., Ltd. (5386.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.62 - $181.71$154.89
Multi-Stage$380.63 - $420.23$400.03
Blended Fair Value$277.46
Current Price$416.00
Upside-33.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-5.53%0.00%11.525.107.3912.046.8615.310.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--125.80%-30.95%-38.67%75.47%-55.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.92%1.36%1.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3119.5711.74
Cash Retained (M)66.4166.4166.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.31-19.57-11.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.1046.8454.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.676.237.27
LTM Dividend per Share11.9811.9811.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.676.237.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6518.2119.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-5.87%-4.87%-3.87%
Fair Value$128.62$154.89$181.71
Upside / Downside-69.08%-62.77%-56.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.56148.94141.69134.80128.23121.99125.65
Payout Ratio57.58%64.06%70.55%77.03%83.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.1595.4299.96103.84107.10109.79116.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-5.87%-4.87%-3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)88.8189.7590.69
Year 2 PV (M)86.5988.4490.31
Year 3 PV (M)83.7186.4189.16
Year 4 PV (M)80.3683.8287.41
Year 5 PV (M)76.6780.8385.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,447.432,580.222,718.72
Equity Value (M)2,863.563,009.473,161.45
Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
Fair Value$380.63$400.03$420.23
Upside / Downside-8.50%-3.84%1.02%

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