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Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. (5206.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.50 - $111.07$86.11
Multi-Stage$136.18 - $149.93$142.92
Blended Fair Value$114.52
Current Price$34.82
Upside228.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.29%0.00%1.250.480.461.250.690.640.640.460.460.00
YoY Growth--160.00%4.17%-63.08%82.00%7.14%0.00%40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.30%1.55%2.85%8.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)722.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.04115.6569.39
Cash Retained (M)722.50722.50722.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.04-115.65-69.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)537.46606.85653.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.985.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$66.50$86.11$111.07
Upside / Downside90.97%147.31%218.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.20928.79932.39936.01939.64943.29971.59
Payout Ratio21.91%35.53%49.15%62.76%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.70329.97458.23587.47717.72848.96898.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)307.63310.72313.82
Year 2 PV (M)398.27406.32414.46
Year 3 PV (M)476.03490.54505.35
Year 4 PV (M)542.18564.33587.16
Year 5 PV (M)597.90628.59660.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,809.8020,826.6521,884.83
Equity Value (M)22,131.8023,227.1524,366.13
Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
Fair Value$136.18$142.92$149.93
Upside / Downside291.10%310.45%330.58%

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