Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Mandom Corporation (4917.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$283.35 - $399.90$341.05
Multi-Stage$547.74 - $599.83$573.28
Blended Fair Value$457.17
Current Price$1,407.00
Upside-67.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-8.46%0.40%39.9338.8936.9633.8146.7662.1266.8052.8342.9940.90
YoY Growth--2.68%5.22%9.31%-27.69%-24.73%-7.00%26.44%22.90%5.09%6.65%
Dividend Yield--2.84%3.21%2.56%2.12%2.26%3.13%2.51%1.53%1.41%1.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,020.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,806.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)214.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)404.00252.50151.50
Cash Retained (M)214.00214.00214.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-404.00-252.50-151.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)-190.00-38.5062.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.1045.1045.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share-4.21-0.851.39
LTM Dividend per Share40.0440.0440.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-4.21-0.851.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend35.8339.1941.43
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate-3.41%-2.41%-1.41%
Fair Value$283.35$341.05$399.90
Upside / Downside-79.86%-75.76%-71.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,020.001,971.391,923.951,877.651,832.471,788.371,842.02
Payout Ratio89.41%89.52%89.64%89.76%89.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,806.001,764.881,724.701,685.421,647.041,609.531,703.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.81%8.81%8.81%
Growth Rate-3.41%-2.41%-1.41%
Year 1 PV (M)1,605.411,622.031,638.65
Year 2 PV (M)1,427.101,456.801,486.81
Year 3 PV (M)1,268.591,308.401,349.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,127.681,175.111,224.02
Year 5 PV (M)1,002.431,055.401,110.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)18,274.3519,240.0820,246.22
Equity Value (M)24,705.5625,857.8227,055.32
Shares Outstanding (M)45.1045.1045.10
Fair Value$547.74$573.28$599.83
Upside / Downside-61.07%-59.26%-57.37%

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