Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (4887.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$835.01 - $1,322.86$1,057.58
Multi-Stage$1,786.06 - $1,963.13$1,872.87
Blended Fair Value$1,465.23
Current Price$2,004.50
Upside-26.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.54%5.15%50.8747.7247.7147.7147.7049.5347.6940.1740.1733.94
YoY Growth--6.60%0.02%0.00%0.02%-3.69%3.85%18.74%0.00%18.35%10.23%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.15%3.95%3.48%2.89%2.73%2.63%2.21%2.21%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,883.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,340.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,543.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,976.601,235.38741.23
Cash Retained (M)3,543.003,543.003,543.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,976.60-1,235.38-741.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,566.402,307.632,801.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
LTM Dividend per Share53.1353.1353.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.2672.4776.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Fair Value$835.01$1,057.58$1,322.86
Upside / Downside-58.34%-47.24%-34.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,883.009,853.449,823.969,794.579,765.289,736.0610,028.15
Payout Ratio64.15%69.32%74.49%79.66%84.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,340.006,830.457,317.907,802.388,283.898,762.469,276.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Year 1 PV (M)6,347.296,411.606,475.91
Year 2 PV (M)6,319.256,447.946,577.94
Year 3 PV (M)6,261.026,453.266,649.39
Year 4 PV (M)6,177.206,431.376,693.31
Year 5 PV (M)6,071.876,385.766,712.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)181,953.24191,359.32201,150.45
Equity Value (M)213,129.87223,489.26234,259.49
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$1,786.06$1,872.87$1,963.13
Upside / Downside-10.90%-6.57%-2.06%

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