Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. (4204.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,419.63 - $33,356.61$12,973.77
Multi-Stage$4,935.51 - $5,406.80$5,166.78
Blended Fair Value$9,070.27
Current Price$2,755.00
Upside229.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.45%9.62%76.7166.8557.2151.7250.3351.1347.3343.5637.3233.20
YoY Growth--14.75%16.85%10.61%2.77%-1.57%8.02%8.67%16.71%12.43%8.45%
Dividend Yield--2.94%3.00%2.76%2.79%2.65%3.32%2.84%2.31%1.86%2.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33,106.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)37,615.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14,144.208,840.135,304.08
Cash Retained (M)37,615.0037,615.0037,615.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-14,144.20-8,840.13-5,304.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)23,470.8028,774.8832,310.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)416.31416.31416.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share56.3869.1277.61
LTM Dividend per Share79.5279.5279.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share56.3869.1277.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend135.90148.64157.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Fair Value$6,419.63$12,973.77$33,356.61
Upside / Downside133.02%370.92%1,110.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70,721.0074,355.9878,177.7882,196.0386,420.8190,862.7493,588.62
Payout Ratio46.81%55.45%64.09%72.72%81.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33,106.0041,230.1650,102.0159,776.9470,314.0681,776.4686,569.47

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate4.14%5.14%6.14%
Year 1 PV (M)38,401.6338,770.3939,139.14
Year 2 PV (M)43,463.4844,302.2045,148.93
Year 3 PV (M)48,298.9449,703.7251,135.46
Year 4 PV (M)52,915.2554,977.1857,098.79
Year 5 PV (M)57,319.4060,124.8063,038.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,814,303.501,903,101.531,995,342.87
Equity Value (M)2,054,702.202,150,979.812,250,904.18
Shares Outstanding (M)416.31416.31416.31
Fair Value$4,935.51$5,166.78$5,406.80
Upside / Downside79.15%87.54%96.25%

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