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Al Majed Oud Co. (4165.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.46 - $94.24$77.46
Multi-Stage$131.04 - $143.83$137.31
Blended Fair Value$107.38
Current Price$148.10
Upside-27.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%5.001.583.924.722.920.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--216.46%-59.69%-16.95%61.64%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.65%1.29%3.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)182.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)150.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.5422.8413.70
Cash Retained (M)32.6832.6832.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.54-22.84-13.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-3.859.8518.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)24.9924.9924.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.150.390.76
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.150.390.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.856.406.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$62.46$77.46$94.24
Upside / Downside-57.82%-47.70%-36.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)182.68180.86179.05177.26175.48173.73178.94
Payout Ratio82.11%83.69%85.27%86.84%88.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)150.00151.35152.67153.94155.17156.36165.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)139.80141.22142.65
Year 2 PV (M)130.24132.91135.61
Year 3 PV (M)121.30125.05128.88
Year 4 PV (M)112.93117.61122.43
Year 5 PV (M)105.11110.58116.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,665.892,804.712,949.25
Equity Value (M)3,275.263,432.083,595.10
Shares Outstanding (M)24.9924.9924.99
Fair Value$131.04$137.31$143.83
Upside / Downside-11.52%-7.29%-2.88%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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