Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Sanso Holdings Corporation (4091.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,349.49 - $49,166.12$33,408.57
Multi-Stage$5,921.38 - $6,481.14$6,196.12
Blended Fair Value$19,802.35
Current Price$5,247.00
Upside277.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.20%14.87%48.0040.0035.9932.0028.0027.0024.0022.0018.0014.00
YoY Growth--20.00%11.15%12.46%14.29%3.70%12.50%9.08%22.23%28.58%16.63%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.84%1.16%1.48%1.23%1.50%1.05%1.39%1.43%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107,011.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22,078.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)84,933.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21,402.2013,376.388,025.83
Cash Retained (M)84,933.0084,933.0084,933.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-21,402.20-13,376.38-8,025.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)63,530.8071,556.6376,907.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.86432.86432.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share146.77165.31177.67
LTM Dividend per Share51.0151.0151.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share146.77165.31177.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend197.78216.32228.68
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12,349.49$33,408.57$49,166.12
Upside / Downside135.36%536.72%837.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107,011.00113,966.72121,374.55129,263.90137,666.05146,614.34151,012.77
Payout Ratio20.63%34.51%48.38%62.25%76.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22,078.0039,324.4658,719.6980,470.15104,800.08131,952.91139,686.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)36,342.3636,686.8337,031.31
Year 2 PV (M)50,151.5451,106.7952,071.05
Year 3 PV (M)63,516.3765,339.6967,197.58
Year 4 PV (M)76,447.4079,387.3582,411.29
Year 5 PV (M)88,955.0093,251.5697,712.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,247,688.772,356,252.982,468,972.19
Equity Value (M)2,563,101.432,682,025.202,805,395.98
Shares Outstanding (M)432.86432.86432.86
Fair Value$5,921.38$6,196.12$6,481.14
Upside / Downside12.85%18.09%23.52%

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