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Definitive Analysis

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AIC Inc. (3693.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$150.86 - $228.79$187.50
Multi-Stage$317.65 - $349.11$333.08
Blended Fair Value$260.29
Current Price$238.00
Upside9.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%8.745.241.310.610.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--66.67%300.00%114.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.88%1.44%1.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)763.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)472.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)152.7095.4457.26
Cash Retained (M)290.61290.61290.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-152.70-95.44-57.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.91195.17233.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.0544.0544.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.134.435.30
LTM Dividend per Share10.7410.7410.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.134.435.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.8715.1716.03
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$150.86$187.50$228.79
Upside / Downside-36.61%-21.22%-3.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)763.50755.87748.31740.83733.42726.08747.87
Payout Ratio61.94%67.55%73.16%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)472.90510.59547.48583.59618.91653.48691.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)472.33477.15481.97
Year 2 PV (M)468.51478.13487.83
Year 3 PV (M)461.99476.28490.86
Year 4 PV (M)453.25472.03491.39
Year 5 PV (M)442.70465.75489.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,693.7612,302.6812,936.71
Equity Value (M)13,992.5514,672.0215,378.52
Shares Outstanding (M)44.0544.0544.05
Fair Value$317.65$333.08$349.11
Upside / Downside33.47%39.95%46.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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