Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd. (3141.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,914.07 - $4,715.35$2,859.28
Multi-Stage$1,333.70 - $1,457.20$1,394.33
Blended Fair Value$2,126.80
Current Price$2,557.00
Upside-16.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS9.74%19.43%34.9832.9531.0029.9726.9821.9720.9815.9811.749.81
YoY Growth--6.15%6.31%3.42%11.10%22.78%4.75%31.26%36.15%19.69%65.49%
Dividend Yield--1.37%1.52%1.05%1.15%0.81%0.49%1.10%0.54%0.58%0.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)18,235.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,774.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)14,461.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,647.002,279.381,367.63
Cash Retained (M)14,461.0014,461.0014,461.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,647.00-2,279.38-1,367.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)10,814.0012,181.6313,093.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.76209.76209.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share51.5558.0762.42
LTM Dividend per Share17.9917.9917.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share51.5558.0762.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend69.5576.0780.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,914.07$2,859.28$4,715.35
Upside / Downside-25.14%11.82%84.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)18,235.0019,420.2820,682.5922,026.9623,458.7124,983.5325,733.04
Payout Ratio20.70%34.56%48.42%62.28%76.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,774.006,711.1010,014.0713,718.0817,861.3022,485.1823,803.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,080.576,138.216,195.84
Year 2 PV (M)8,220.768,377.358,535.40
Year 3 PV (M)10,203.4110,496.3210,794.77
Year 4 PV (M)12,036.9312,499.8412,975.97
Year 5 PV (M)13,729.3414,392.4815,080.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)229,488.72240,573.11252,081.73
Equity Value (M)279,759.74292,477.29305,664.71
Shares Outstanding (M)209.76209.76209.76
Fair Value$1,333.70$1,394.33$1,457.20
Upside / Downside-47.84%-45.47%-43.01%

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