Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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RACCOON HOLDINGS, Inc. (3031.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,968.43 - $7,765.76$5,396.68
Multi-Stage$952.48 - $1,041.77$996.31
Blended Fair Value$3,196.49
Current Price$822.00
Upside288.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.70%29.22%15.0518.3819.7619.8214.465.204.323.673.681.80
YoY Growth---18.11%-7.02%-0.30%37.04%178.35%20.27%17.60%-0.24%104.08%55.72%
Dividend Yield--1.83%3.07%2.77%1.29%0.62%0.44%0.68%0.73%0.53%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)836.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)322.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)514.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)167.40104.6262.77
Cash Retained (M)514.43514.43514.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-167.40-104.62-62.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)347.03409.81451.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.4321.4321.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.1919.1221.07
LTM Dividend per Share15.0515.0515.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.1919.1221.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend31.2434.1736.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,968.43$5,396.68$7,765.76
Upside / Downside139.47%556.53%844.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)836.98891.38949.321,011.021,076.741,146.731,181.13
Payout Ratio38.54%48.83%59.12%69.41%79.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)322.55435.26561.26701.80858.241,032.061,092.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)402.31406.12409.94
Year 2 PV (M)479.50488.63497.85
Year 3 PV (M)554.18570.09586.30
Year 4 PV (M)626.41650.50675.28
Year 5 PV (M)696.25729.88764.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,657.1618,510.0119,395.50
Equity Value (M)20,415.8121,355.2422,329.66
Shares Outstanding (M)21.4321.4321.43
Fair Value$952.48$996.31$1,041.77
Upside / Downside15.87%21.21%26.74%

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