Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aidite Qinhuangdao Technology Co Ltd (301580.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - SpecialtiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.12 - $18.57$15.81
Multi-Stage$19.81 - $21.74$20.76
Blended Fair Value$18.28
Current Price$44.01
Upside-58.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.010.190.250.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-94.05%-23.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)131.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.1922.6213.57
Cash Retained (M)131.33131.33131.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.19-22.62-13.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)95.15108.72117.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.1590.1590.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.211.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.211.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.12$15.81$18.57
Upside / Downside-70.19%-64.07%-57.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.93179.12177.33175.55173.80172.06177.22
Payout Ratio27.41%39.93%52.45%64.96%77.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.6071.5293.00114.05134.66154.85163.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)64.3765.0265.68
Year 2 PV (M)75.3276.8778.43
Year 3 PV (M)83.1385.7088.32
Year 4 PV (M)88.3391.9995.77
Year 5 PV (M)91.4196.18101.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,383.491,455.531,530.54
Equity Value (M)1,786.061,871.291,959.87
Shares Outstanding (M)90.1590.1590.15
Fair Value$19.81$20.76$21.74
Upside / Downside-54.98%-52.84%-50.60%

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