Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jilin Province Xidian Pharmaceutical Sci-Tech Development Co.,Ltd (301130.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.60 - $5.16$4.37
Multi-Stage$5.45 - $5.97$5.71
Blended Fair Value$5.04
Current Price$30.00
Upside-83.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720142013
DPS1.94%0.71%0.260.170.140.000.320.240.160.140.210.11
YoY Growth--54.81%23.08%0.00%-100.00%33.33%50.00%11.95%-33.76%93.47%-54.68%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.69%0.46%0.00%0.55%0.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.874.922.95
Cash Retained (M)19.2119.2119.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.87-4.92-2.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.3414.2916.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)76.6876.6876.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-1.29%-0.29%0.71%
Fair Value$3.60$4.37$5.16
Upside / Downside-88.00%-85.45%-82.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.3539.2439.1239.0138.9038.7939.95
Payout Ratio51.19%58.95%66.71%74.47%82.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.1423.1326.1029.0531.9934.9136.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-1.29%-0.29%0.71%
Year 1 PV (M)20.8221.0321.24
Year 2 PV (M)21.1521.5822.02
Year 3 PV (M)21.2021.8522.51
Year 4 PV (M)21.0121.8722.76
Year 5 PV (M)20.6421.7022.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)313.37329.57346.43
Equity Value (M)418.19437.61457.78
Shares Outstanding (M)76.6876.6876.68
Fair Value$5.45$5.71$5.97
Upside / Downside-81.82%-80.98%-80.10%

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