Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.LTD (300957.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.28 - $10.88$8.99
Multi-Stage$12.14 - $13.29$12.71
Blended Fair Value$10.85
Current Price$45.08
Upside-75.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS6.59%0.00%0.630.820.130.460.250.460.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth---22.59%511.50%-70.91%86.60%-46.46%410.59%2,617.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.32%0.10%0.25%0.15%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)360.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.0345.0227.01
Cash Retained (M)95.6095.6095.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.03-45.02-27.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.5750.5868.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)414.20414.20414.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-0.88%0.12%1.12%
Fair Value$7.28$8.99$10.88
Upside / Downside-83.85%-80.06%-75.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)360.16360.60361.03361.47361.91362.34373.21
Payout Ratio73.46%76.76%80.07%83.38%86.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.56276.81289.09301.40313.74326.11345.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.59%8.59%8.59%
Growth Rate-0.88%0.12%1.12%
Year 1 PV (M)252.36254.91257.45
Year 2 PV (M)240.28245.15250.07
Year 3 PV (M)228.38235.36242.48
Year 4 PV (M)216.73225.61234.76
Year 5 PV (M)205.37215.94226.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,886.764,086.824,295.03
Equity Value (M)5,029.885,263.785,506.74
Shares Outstanding (M)414.20414.20414.20
Fair Value$12.14$12.71$13.29
Upside / Downside-73.06%-71.81%-70.51%

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