Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co., Ltd. (300953.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$253.38 - $635.82$595.85
Multi-Stage$91.23 - $99.89$95.48
Blended Fair Value$345.67
Current Price$188.19
Upside83.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS63.74%40.48%0.960.720.570.270.110.080.070.070.060.08
YoY Growth--32.98%27.46%112.86%134.17%39.33%13.18%8.05%16.20%-26.14%142.35%
Dividend Yield--0.84%1.76%1.08%0.33%0.23%0.12%0.11%0.00%0.00%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)493.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)363.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.7061.6837.01
Cash Retained (M)363.24363.24363.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.70-61.68-37.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)264.54301.55326.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)154.35154.35154.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.711.952.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.711.952.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.562.802.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$253.38$595.85$635.82
Upside / Downside34.64%216.62%237.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)493.48525.56559.72596.10634.84676.11696.39
Payout Ratio26.39%39.11%51.84%64.56%77.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.24205.57290.13384.82490.60608.50644.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.56%6.56%6.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)191.09192.90194.72
Year 2 PV (M)250.71255.49260.31
Year 3 PV (M)309.12317.99327.04
Year 4 PV (M)366.34380.43394.92
Year 5 PV (M)422.38442.78463.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,542.6813,148.4913,777.49
Equity Value (M)14,082.3214,738.0815,418.43
Shares Outstanding (M)154.35154.35154.35
Fair Value$91.23$95.48$99.89
Upside / Downside-51.52%-49.26%-46.92%

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