Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Taihe Water Treatment Technologies Co., Ltd. (300801.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.24 - $24.46$16.11
Multi-Stage$8.18 - $8.93$8.55
Blended Fair Value$12.33
Current Price$26.35
Upside-53.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%44.63%0.240.470.400.250.280.000.060.000.000.19
YoY Growth---48.21%16.35%60.00%-10.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-99.81%3,009.87%
Dividend Yield--1.38%3.27%1.90%1.10%1.38%0.00%0.24%0.00%0.00%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)125.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)27.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.1215.709.42
Cash Retained (M)97.6197.6197.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.12-15.70-9.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)72.4981.9188.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.16216.16216.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.380.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.24$16.11$24.46
Upside / Downside-57.33%-38.88%-7.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)125.60133.76142.45151.71161.57172.08177.24
Payout Ratio22.29%35.83%49.37%62.91%76.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)27.9947.9270.3395.45123.54154.87163.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.2143.6244.03
Year 2 PV (M)57.1858.2759.37
Year 3 PV (M)69.9771.9874.03
Year 4 PV (M)81.6684.8088.03
Year 5 PV (M)92.3196.77101.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,424.091,492.871,564.29
Equity Value (M)1,768.431,848.321,931.15
Shares Outstanding (M)216.16216.16216.16
Fair Value$8.18$8.55$8.93
Upside / Downside-68.95%-67.55%-66.10%

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