Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yangfan New Materials (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd. (300637.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.31 - $0.43$0.37
Multi-Stage$0.57 - $0.63$0.60
Blended Fair Value$0.49
Current Price$13.44
Upside-96.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.16%-1.27%0.070.080.070.090.140.170.110.160.180.10
YoY Growth---22.49%21.76%-21.44%-38.19%-14.89%60.11%-35.95%-8.45%74.59%37.72%
Dividend Yield--0.70%0.91%0.82%1.17%1.77%1.70%0.61%1.58%2.46%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.341.460.88
Cash Retained (M)0.840.840.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.34-1.46-0.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.50-0.63-0.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.81234.81234.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Fair Value$0.31$0.37$0.43
Upside / Downside-97.71%-97.24%-96.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.7011.4411.1810.9210.6810.4410.75
Payout Ratio92.86%92.29%91.72%91.14%90.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.8710.5610.259.969.679.399.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.24%9.24%9.24%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)9.569.669.76
Year 2 PV (M)8.428.598.77
Year 3 PV (M)7.417.647.87
Year 4 PV (M)6.526.797.07
Year 5 PV (M)5.736.046.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)97.26102.40107.74
Equity Value (M)134.90141.11147.57
Shares Outstanding (M)234.81234.81234.81
Fair Value$0.57$0.60$0.63
Upside / Downside-95.73%-95.53%-95.32%

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