Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SonoScape Medical Corp. (300633.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.02 - $6.62$4.34
Multi-Stage$2.33 - $2.54$2.43
Blended Fair Value$3.39
Current Price$34.38
Upside-90.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.43%8.20%0.330.190.130.010.070.100.050.040.010.01
YoY Growth--74.48%43.22%942.23%-81.91%-28.68%98.04%39.37%285.08%-20.68%-92.24%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.51%0.24%0.05%0.30%0.38%0.16%0.12%0.12%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)66.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)19.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.388.375.02
Cash Retained (M)19.2319.2319.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.38-8.37-5.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.8510.8714.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.54432.54432.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.140.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.02$4.34$6.62
Upside / Downside-91.22%-87.38%-80.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)66.9271.2775.9180.8486.0991.6994.44
Payout Ratio71.26%75.01%78.76%82.50%86.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.6953.4659.7866.7074.2682.5287.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)48.2248.6849.13
Year 2 PV (M)48.6449.5650.50
Year 3 PV (M)48.9550.3551.78
Year 4 PV (M)49.1551.0452.99
Year 5 PV (M)49.2751.6554.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)764.34801.26839.59
Equity Value (M)1,008.571,052.541,098.11
Shares Outstanding (M)432.54432.54432.54
Fair Value$2.33$2.43$2.54
Upside / Downside-93.22%-92.92%-92.62%

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