Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

EST Tools Co., Ltd (300488.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$90.88 - $183.15$171.64
Multi-Stage$28.67 - $31.36$29.99
Blended Fair Value$100.82
Current Price$36.27
Upside177.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.67%13.01%0.570.150.190.170.140.200.180.100.080.05
YoY Growth--276.13%-21.18%12.27%17.82%-26.22%8.95%72.49%26.95%61.55%-69.53%
Dividend Yield--1.53%0.65%0.83%0.66%0.97%1.27%1.10%0.55%0.30%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)153.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)30.6219.1411.48
Cash Retained (M)56.3756.3756.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-30.62-19.14-11.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.7537.2344.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.25166.25166.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.220.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.580.580.58
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.220.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.810.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$90.88$171.64$183.15
Upside / Downside150.56%373.22%404.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)153.10163.05173.65184.94196.96209.76216.05
Payout Ratio63.18%68.55%73.91%79.27%84.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.73111.77128.34146.61166.70188.78199.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.10105.09106.07
Year 2 PV (M)111.34113.46115.60
Year 3 PV (M)118.46121.86125.33
Year 4 PV (M)125.46130.29135.25
Year 5 PV (M)132.34138.73145.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,175.344,377.014,586.40
Equity Value (M)4,767.044,986.445,214.02
Shares Outstanding (M)166.25166.25166.25
Fair Value$28.67$29.99$31.36
Upside / Downside-20.94%-17.30%-13.53%

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