Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Cixing Co.,Ltd. (300307.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.57 - $24.24$22.71
Multi-Stage$14.69 - $16.11$15.38
Blended Fair Value$19.05
Current Price$7.00
Upside172.12%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.96%-0.19%0.100.010.020.010.010.040.220.110.100.00
YoY Growth--1,110.02%-44.33%106.73%-34.92%-67.71%-84.18%106.48%6.43%1,939.02%-95.27%
Dividend Yield--1.08%0.15%0.26%0.14%0.15%0.77%3.26%1.43%0.94%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)95.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)83.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)12.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.1811.997.19
Cash Retained (M)12.0312.0312.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.18-11.99-7.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.150.044.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)786.91786.91786.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.57$22.71$24.24
Upside / Downside193.86%224.46%246.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)95.89102.13108.77115.83123.36131.38135.32
Payout Ratio87.46%87.96%88.47%88.98%89.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)83.8689.8496.23103.07110.40118.24125.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)87.6788.5089.33
Year 2 PV (M)91.6493.3895.14
Year 3 PV (M)95.7898.53101.34
Year 4 PV (M)100.12103.97107.93
Year 5 PV (M)104.64109.69114.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,077.3011,612.3412,167.86
Equity Value (M)11,557.1512,106.4112,676.53
Shares Outstanding (M)786.91786.91786.91
Fair Value$14.69$15.38$16.11
Upside / Downside109.81%119.78%130.13%

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