Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Resources Boya Bio-pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (300294.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.24 - $40.34$23.29
Multi-Stage$10.75 - $11.72$11.23
Blended Fair Value$17.26
Current Price$24.66
Upside-30.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.70%19.88%0.460.270.170.090.180.190.200.080.110.09
YoY Growth--72.28%62.16%80.74%-48.17%-6.10%-7.00%157.09%-28.16%16.86%24.33%
Dividend Yield--1.72%0.93%0.47%0.31%0.63%0.60%0.66%0.23%0.26%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)327.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)165.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.4540.9124.54
Cash Retained (M)165.44165.44165.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.45-40.91-24.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)99.99124.53140.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)502.73502.73502.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.24$23.29$40.34
Upside / Downside-38.19%-5.56%63.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)327.25348.52371.17395.30421.00448.36461.81
Payout Ratio49.45%57.56%65.67%73.78%81.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.81200.60243.74291.65344.75403.52427.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)182.13183.86185.59
Year 2 PV (M)200.93204.76208.62
Year 3 PV (M)218.29224.56230.94
Year 4 PV (M)234.28243.29252.56
Year 5 PV (M)248.98261.01273.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,317.624,526.174,742.69
Equity Value (M)5,402.255,643.655,893.90
Shares Outstanding (M)502.73502.73502.73
Fair Value$10.75$11.23$11.72
Upside / Downside-56.42%-54.48%-52.46%

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