Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Anli Material Technology Co., Ltd. (300218.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$128.73 - $151.71$142.15
Multi-Stage$84.74 - $93.11$88.84
Blended Fair Value$115.50
Current Price$18.74
Upside516.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.81%-1.14%0.190.290.290.110.220.190.140.220.220.08
YoY Growth---36.07%1.54%157.40%-49.30%13.38%41.79%-37.94%2.51%165.72%-61.25%
Dividend Yield--1.14%2.13%2.77%0.87%1.96%2.37%1.64%2.72%1.55%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)165.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)59.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.0620.6612.40
Cash Retained (M)106.15106.15106.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.06-20.66-12.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.0985.4993.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.83213.83213.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.400.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Fair Value$128.73$142.15$151.71
Upside / Downside586.94%658.56%709.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)165.31173.70182.51191.78201.51211.74218.09
Payout Ratio35.78%46.63%57.47%68.31%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)59.1580.99104.89131.01159.51190.56201.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.89%1.89%1.89%
Growth Rate4.08%5.08%6.08%
Year 1 PV (M)78.7379.4980.24
Year 2 PV (M)99.12101.04102.97
Year 3 PV (M)120.36123.86127.43
Year 4 PV (M)142.45148.01153.72
Year 5 PV (M)165.44173.55181.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,513.9818,371.7119,262.72
Equity Value (M)18,120.0818,997.6519,909.05
Shares Outstanding (M)213.83213.83213.83
Fair Value$84.74$88.84$93.11
Upside / Downside352.19%374.09%396.83%

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