Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

GuangDong HongTeo Technology Co.,Ltd. Class A (300176.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.70 - $1.12$0.89
Multi-Stage$1.04 - $1.13$1.08
Blended Fair Value$0.99
Current Price$7.15
Upside-86.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.58%10.02%0.070.090.080.060.090.090.330.060.030.01
YoY Growth---16.75%14.85%19.51%-27.29%-4.82%-72.50%497.50%100.00%100.00%-50.00%
Dividend Yield--1.04%1.56%1.14%1.14%1.39%1.31%0.70%0.14%0.18%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)26.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)19.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.213.251.95
Cash Retained (M)6.716.716.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.21-3.25-1.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.503.454.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)387.58387.58387.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Fair Value$0.70$0.89$1.12
Upside / Downside-90.20%-87.56%-84.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)26.0426.4926.9527.4127.8828.3729.22
Payout Ratio74.24%77.39%80.54%83.70%86.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)19.3320.5021.7022.9424.2225.5327.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate0.73%1.73%2.73%
Year 1 PV (M)18.7218.9019.09
Year 2 PV (M)18.0918.4518.82
Year 3 PV (M)17.4617.9918.52
Year 4 PV (M)16.8317.5118.20
Year 5 PV (M)16.2017.0217.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)314.47330.39346.96
Equity Value (M)401.76420.26439.45
Shares Outstanding (M)387.58387.58387.58
Fair Value$1.04$1.08$1.13
Upside / Downside-85.50%-84.83%-84.14%

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