Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Guibao Science & Technology Co.,Ltd. (300019.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$100.64 - $155.66$145.88
Multi-Stage$25.59 - $28.02$26.78
Blended Fair Value$86.33
Current Price$21.44
Upside302.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS117.70%14.41%0.320.300.300.200.130.010.080.080.120.08
YoY Growth--7.03%-0.01%49.99%57.85%1,829.77%-92.24%0.00%-32.41%50.00%-0.10%
Dividend Yield--1.85%1.97%1.76%1.14%0.70%0.07%1.08%0.81%1.02%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)308.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.6438.5323.12
Cash Retained (M)184.04184.04184.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.64-38.53-23.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)122.40145.51160.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)393.76393.76393.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$100.64$145.88$155.66
Upside / Downside369.42%580.39%626.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)308.20328.23349.57372.29396.49422.26434.93
Payout Ratio40.29%50.23%60.17%70.11%80.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.16164.87210.34261.03317.42380.03402.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)153.85155.31156.77
Year 2 PV (M)183.16186.65190.17
Year 3 PV (M)212.11218.20224.40
Year 4 PV (M)240.69249.95259.47
Year 5 PV (M)268.91281.90295.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,018.939,454.559,906.84
Equity Value (M)10,077.6510,546.5511,033.03
Shares Outstanding (M)393.76393.76393.76
Fair Value$25.59$26.78$28.02
Upside / Downside19.37%24.92%30.69%

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