Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nissin Foods Holdings Co.,Ltd. (2897.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17,170.97 - $32,766.83$30,707.32
Multi-Stage$5,136.04 - $5,621.61$5,374.36
Blended Fair Value$18,040.84
Current Price$2,786.00
Upside547.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.59%10.60%76.7853.2943.1947.4438.8738.8735.3331.7829.3428.04
YoY Growth--44.08%23.37%-8.95%22.05%0.01%10.02%11.15%8.34%4.61%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.56%1.31%1.09%1.52%1.46%1.22%1.52%1.19%1.25%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)48,569.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20,754.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)27,815.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,713.806,071.133,642.68
Cash Retained (M)27,815.0027,815.0027,815.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,713.80-6,071.13-3,642.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)18,101.2021,743.8824,172.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)294.78294.78294.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share61.4073.7682.00
LTM Dividend per Share70.4070.4070.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share61.4073.7682.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend131.81144.17152.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17,170.97$30,707.32$32,766.83
Upside / Downside516.33%1,002.20%1,076.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)48,569.0051,725.9955,088.1758,668.9162,482.3866,543.7468,540.05
Payout Ratio42.73%52.18%61.64%71.09%80.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20,754.0026,993.0933,955.5741,709.1250,327.1859,889.3763,399.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25,152.5425,390.9625,629.37
Year 2 PV (M)29,482.8730,044.4330,611.30
Year 3 PV (M)33,745.7634,714.4835,701.56
Year 4 PV (M)37,941.9939,401.1340,901.96
Year 5 PV (M)42,072.3344,104.4446,214.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,345,629.061,410,623.441,478,105.32
Equity Value (M)1,514,024.541,584,278.871,657,163.82
Shares Outstanding (M)294.78294.78294.78
Fair Value$5,136.04$5,374.36$5,621.61
Upside / Downside84.35%92.91%101.78%

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