Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tokatsu Holdings Co.,Ltd. (2754.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$582.67 - $848.68$711.36
Multi-Stage$979.61 - $1,077.39$1,027.55
Blended Fair Value$869.46
Current Price$529.99
Upside64.05%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%14.309.539.539.539.530.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.70%2.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)397.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)324.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.4249.6429.78
Cash Retained (M)324.51324.51324.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.42-49.64-29.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)245.09274.87294.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.085.085.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.2954.1658.07
LTM Dividend per Share14.3014.3014.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.2954.1658.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend62.5968.4672.37
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$582.67$711.36$848.68
Upside / Downside9.94%34.22%60.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)397.08393.11389.18385.29381.44377.62388.95
Payout Ratio18.28%32.62%46.97%61.31%75.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.57128.24182.78236.22288.58339.86359.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.53%8.53%8.53%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)116.97118.16119.36
Year 2 PV (M)152.07155.19158.34
Year 3 PV (M)179.26184.80190.46
Year 4 PV (M)199.74208.02216.55
Year 5 PV (M)214.56225.73237.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,109.024,322.994,545.78
Equity Value (M)4,971.625,214.895,467.85
Shares Outstanding (M)5.085.085.08
Fair Value$979.61$1,027.55$1,077.39
Upside / Downside84.84%93.88%103.28%

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