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Definitive Analysis

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Wan Hai Lines Ltd. (2615.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,019.00 - $2,418.74$2,266.72
Multi-Stage$353.61 - $387.15$370.07
Blended Fair Value$1,318.39
Current Price$74.30
Upside1,674.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.66%9.02%1.504.989.100.790.630.480.390.320.951.58
YoY Growth---70.00%-45.24%1,055.00%25.00%32.09%21.13%25.00%-66.67%-40.00%150.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%11.19%13.29%0.57%1.45%4.39%3.11%2.23%6.80%10.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)34,233.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9,821.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)24,412.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,846.744,279.212,567.53
Cash Retained (M)24,412.1824,412.1824,412.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,846.74-4,279.21-2,567.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,565.4420,132.9721,844.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,814.782,814.782,814.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.247.157.76
LTM Dividend per Share3.493.493.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.247.157.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.7310.6411.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,019.00$2,266.72$2,418.74
Upside / Downside1,271.47%2,950.76%3,155.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)34,233.6936,458.8838,828.7141,352.5844,040.5046,903.1348,310.22
Payout Ratio28.69%40.95%53.21%65.48%77.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9,821.5114,930.5320,662.2227,075.9534,236.1742,212.8144,686.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,886.6814,018.3114,149.94
Year 2 PV (M)17,874.0818,214.5318,558.19
Year 3 PV (M)21,784.8022,410.1723,047.38
Year 4 PV (M)25,619.9526,605.2327,618.65
Year 5 PV (M)29,380.6130,799.7132,273.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)886,787.10929,619.25974,090.68
Equity Value (M)995,333.221,041,667.181,089,737.95
Shares Outstanding (M)2,814.782,814.782,814.78
Fair Value$353.61$370.07$387.15
Upside / Downside375.92%398.08%421.06%

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