Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BOC Aviation Limited (2588.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$429.88 - $506.48$474.64
Multi-Stage$160.38 - $175.88$167.99
Blended Fair Value$321.32
Current Price$8.28
Upside3,780.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.81%8.93%0.470.290.260.230.360.320.320.220.060.00
YoY Growth--62.32%10.64%15.46%-36.05%9.84%0.91%43.81%265.24%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--6.06%3.80%3.14%3.10%4.11%3.18%4.33%4.20%1.24%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,767.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)590.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,176.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)353.49220.93132.56
Cash Retained (M)1,176.831,176.831,176.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-353.49-220.93-132.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)823.35955.901,044.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)694.01694.01694.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.381.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.381.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.232.36
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$429.88$474.64$506.48
Upside / Downside5,091.83%5,632.38%6,016.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,767.441,882.322,004.672,134.972,273.752,421.542,494.19
Payout Ratio33.42%44.73%56.05%67.37%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)590.60842.011,123.611,438.251,789.062,179.392,307.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.67%4.67%4.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)796.92804.48812.03
Year 2 PV (M)1,006.501,025.671,045.02
Year 3 PV (M)1,219.361,254.361,290.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,435.551,490.761,547.55
Year 5 PV (M)1,655.121,735.061,818.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)105,194.61110,275.54115,550.94
Equity Value (M)111,308.06116,585.87122,063.63
Shares Outstanding (M)694.01694.01694.01
Fair Value$160.38$167.99$175.88
Upside / Downside1,837.00%1,928.85%2,024.17%

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