Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wellnet Corporation (2428.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - InfrastructureSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$605.02 - $968.07$769.52
Multi-Stage$967.77 - $1,062.26$1,014.11
Blended Fair Value$891.81
Current Price$716.00
Upside24.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.92%-0.91%22.0316.7314.0515.3313.0049.4048.9149.7439.2025.14
YoY Growth--31.68%19.08%-8.38%17.96%-73.69%1.01%-1.68%26.91%55.94%4.18%
Dividend Yield--3.08%2.26%2.39%2.59%2.47%8.26%6.88%4.80%3.29%1.90%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,090.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)417.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)672.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.02136.2681.76
Cash Retained (M)672.73672.73672.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.02-136.26-81.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.71536.47590.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18.9618.9618.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.9828.2931.16
LTM Dividend per Share22.0122.0122.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.9828.2931.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend45.9950.3053.17
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Fair Value$605.02$769.52$968.07
Upside / Downside-15.50%7.47%35.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,090.101,101.861,113.741,125.741,137.881,150.151,184.65
Payout Ratio38.29%48.63%58.97%69.32%79.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)417.38535.83656.80780.31906.411,035.131,095.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate0.08%1.08%2.08%
Year 1 PV (M)492.67497.60502.52
Year 2 PV (M)555.25566.40577.66
Year 3 PV (M)606.53624.89643.62
Year 4 PV (M)647.79674.07701.15
Year 5 PV (M)680.20714.87750.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,370.5716,154.0016,969.05
Equity Value (M)18,353.0119,231.8320,144.94
Shares Outstanding (M)18.9618.9618.96
Fair Value$967.77$1,014.11$1,062.26
Upside / Downside35.16%41.64%48.36%

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