Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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LEPU ScienTech Medical Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (2291.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Sector:

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.25 - $14.75$12.44
Multi-Stage$16.83 - $18.48$17.64
Blended Fair Value$15.04
Current Price$18.38
Upside-18.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.560.000.000.920.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.43%0.00%0.00%3.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)503.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)194.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)308.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)100.6062.8837.73
Cash Retained (M)308.25308.25308.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-100.60-62.88-37.73
(=) Excess Retained (M)207.65245.37270.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)346.75346.75346.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.710.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.560.560.56
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.710.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.25$12.44$14.75
Upside / Downside-44.24%-32.29%-19.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)503.02497.99493.01488.08483.20478.37492.72
Payout Ratio38.72%48.98%59.23%69.49%79.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)194.77243.90292.02339.16385.32430.53455.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)221.30223.56225.81
Year 2 PV (M)240.41245.35250.33
Year 3 PV (M)253.35261.19269.18
Year 4 PV (M)261.17271.99283.15
Year 5 PV (M)264.77278.56292.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,596.474,835.825,085.04
Equity Value (M)5,837.486,116.466,406.43
Shares Outstanding (M)346.75346.75346.75
Fair Value$16.83$17.64$18.48
Upside / Downside-8.41%-4.03%0.52%

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