Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chen Nan Iron Wire Co.,Ltd (2071.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.29 - $51.69$41.80
Multi-Stage$74.60 - $82.25$78.35
Blended Fair Value$60.07
Current Price$22.95
Upside161.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.56%0.00%0.430.330.520.000.000.360.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--29.96%-35.29%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.85%1.28%3.26%0.00%0.00%2.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)244.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)214.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.9030.5618.34
Cash Retained (M)214.49214.49214.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.90-30.56-18.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)165.58183.92196.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)69.2069.2069.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.392.662.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.430.430.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.392.662.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.833.093.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Fair Value$33.29$41.80$51.69
Upside / Downside45.05%82.14%125.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)244.51242.14239.79237.47235.17232.89239.88
Payout Ratio12.28%27.82%43.37%58.91%74.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.0267.37103.99139.90175.10209.60221.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-1.97%-0.97%0.03%
Year 1 PV (M)62.7063.3463.98
Year 2 PV (M)90.0991.9393.80
Year 3 PV (M)112.80116.28119.84
Year 4 PV (M)131.40136.85142.46
Year 5 PV (M)146.40154.02161.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,618.594,859.025,109.35
Equity Value (M)5,161.985,421.455,691.39
Shares Outstanding (M)69.2069.2069.20
Fair Value$74.60$78.35$82.25
Upside / Downside225.04%241.38%258.38%

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